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Games 3 and 5, both of which are played in San Francisco, are more important to the Giants than the Royals; Kansas City can more frequently weather losses in those games and still win the series. (Put another way, there are comparatively fewer situations in which the Giants can win the series despite losing either of those games.)

Game 4, however, is of roughly equal importance utfifas to each team. With Jason Vargas (who had a good season in 2014) scheduled to start for the Royals against San Francisco’s Ryan Vogelsong (who had a poor year), the game is very nearly a 50-50 proposition despite the Giants being at home.

That means it’s a significant opportunity for the Royals to regain the home-field advantage they relinquished after losing Game 1. In the subset of simulations where the Royals win Game 4, they go on to win the World Series 66.6 percent of the time; in the subset where they lose Game 4, they only win the World Series 28.2 percent of the time.

Of course, that’s just one way of looking at the importance of games in a series. When analyzing the NBA postseason in the past, www.utfifas.co I’ve quantified the overall importance of a playoff game by focusing on the likely shift in series win probability caused by its outcome.

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